Summary
This report summarizes the results of the project “Tailoring climate scenarios” (project CS07) of the Climate changes Spatial Planning programme. In 2005 KNMI started this project in cooperation with several users to provide them with climate information tailored to their requirements. One part of the project focussed on communication: among others which climate data do users need and why, giving presentations, development of a website on the KNMI’06 climate scenarios. The other part of the project dealt with the development of methods to tailor climate information. This was done within six pilot projects. In Chapter 2 specific aspects of tailoring – e.g. how to find out which data users really need, how to deal with uncertainties – are presented with the help of four examples of tailoring projects. These four projects differ in scale (national to local) and sector (spatial planning, water management and energy). The results and insights from the whole CS07 project are summarized in Chapter 3.
Tailoring requires continuous communication adjusted to the various users
Tailoring climate information is not as simple as “you ask we deliver”, however is requires continuous contact with users of climate information. To deliver relevant climate information in the right format it is important to know who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it. Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects resulted in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information. This mutual understanding facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products.
Uncertainties
The knowledge of users on uncertainties in climate and climate change projections varies enormously. Different groups also have different ways of dealing with uncertainties. Therefore, a lot of attention is paid to communication on uncertainties in tailoring projects. On internet and in reports descriptions and examples are given of the various types of uncertainties in climate data and climate information. Much attention is given also to how to use scenarios and how to present results: e.g. always present pictures of at least 2 climate scenarios to make the users and public aware of the uncertainties about our future climate.
Methods to tailor climate information are an extra source of uncertainty
Available information on the current and future climate can not be used always directly in climate impact studies – observational time series are sometimes too short, or information on percentages change in the KNMI’06 climate scenarios are not sufficient. For processing climate information several methods are developed in this project. An overview of methods for the current and future climate is given in Tables 3.1 and 3.2. It is also indicated in which project which method is used. The key element in these methods is the generation of time series, which can often be used directly in impact models or can be used to derive climate indices. Time series of climate variables for the future can be generated with different methods, each with its own advantages and limitations. A few of the tailoring projects show that the use of one method or another can lead to different estimations of the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the tailoring methods themselves can be an extra source of uncertainties.
Spin off and anchoring of results
Results from this project are already used in several other projects. A few examples: information on user requirements is used during the development of the next generation of regional climate scenarios by KNMI. Users are also more involved in the development of these climate scenarios than was the case with the KNMI’06 climate scenarios. Results of the CS07 project were also included in the set up of Theme 6 “Climate projections” of the research programme Knowledge for Climate. In this Theme 6 a lot of attention is paid to translating climate data to information for users, the coupling between climate and impact research and the communication to users of climate and climate impact information.
Read more: synthesis report
Contact: project CS07
